Impact Of A Bird Flu Pandemic Hits Home

If the avian flu virus mutates so that the disease can be transmitted from one human to another, we will face a pandemic with the potential to kill a billion people worldwide. It is important for people to educate themselves, their family and their neighbors about bird flu and the concrete steps they can take now can to lessen the spread of the disease.

Waiting to prepare for a pandemic is like waiting for a category five hurricane to come ashore before racing to the lumber yard for plywood. A pandemic is even more dangerous than a localized natural disaster because a virus can be transported by airplane to virtually anywhere in the world within a matter of days.

Pandemic preparation has two integral components. First, you should have a basic 3 day emergency kit, just as you would for an earthquake, storm, hurricane, or other disaster. The only difference in preparing for a pandemic is that you should extend the level of preparation to last much longer. The flu lasts approximately two weeks, but it can conservatively take 6-8 weeks for it to go through a population. During this time you will need to be prepared for disruption of services just as with other large scale emergencies.

Second, is the preparation for "infection control," it involves hygiene and barriers to contamination. Hygiene includes hand washing, covering sneezes and coughs, and daily disinfection of surfaces such as doorknobs, keyboards, and faucets. The "barrier method" of infection control requires that sick individuals be isolated and that others wear protective clothing. Only by wearing the appropriate quality masks, gloves, and goggles can the flu virus be prevented from entering through the mucosal membranes of the eyes, nose, and mouth.

Dr. Fenstersheib, the Public Health Officer for Santa Clara County, California, predicted that in the event of a pandemic, 25-35% of the population would become ill. He said, "With the burden this will place on the healthcare system and the government infrastructure, it is clear that each individual and family in our community must take on the responsibility to be prepared to care for sick family members during a pandemic. With proper supplies and instruction, home preparedness will go a long way to lessen illness and save lives."

Tracy Ferea, Ph.D. is a published scientist whose research at Stanford University focused on the evolution of microbial genomes. She writes for BirdFluSmart.com to increase the general publics understanding of the risk of a bird flu pandemic. Bird Flu Smart's mission is to prepare the public for a pandemic by providing both information and products, that increase preparedness.

Bird Flu Impact

With autumn very likely to represent another opportunity for the bird flu virus to find new hosts in new territories, as a consequence of the movement of large flocks of migratory birds across great distances, some experts warn the flu pandemic that is so feared and predicted for some while now could be just around the corner. But how severe could such an outcome be? Estimates range from thousands to millions of victims. In any case, it might not be a disease to end civilization as we know it, but it is quite likely to cause important social disturbances. So how does this disease influence current world affairs and how will it take its toll on our lives in an unfortunate future?

Current effects of the much talked about virus are obvious in areas where the virus has been detected in birds or even humans. Asian countries in particular have been facing the disease for a few years now. Most have at least some prevention measures implemented and there are programs to monitor and test birds populations for the virus. Some have chosen to vaccinate poultry with anti viral drugs and where there is an outbreak, rapid culling of all the birds in the area is standard procedure. In countries relying heavily on poultry consumption, the culling of millions of birds has forced the population to choose other products as a substitute.

Poultry farm owners and all other types of companies involved in the process of raising, processing and distributing poultry products have suffered great losses and are likely to go to great lengths to merely keep their businesses alive. The financial issue is manifested at a national level as well. Countries depending on their poultry exports are forced to see their products rejected from the international market, as many others ban such imports fearing a possible spread of the disease. Tourism is also affected. Although not as noticeably as the food industry, periodic changes into the travelers' preferences can be noticed. Previously favoured destinations in Asia now struggle to attract tourists, as many people are rightfully reluctant to visit regions where the bird flu virus has ravishing effects. Some governments have even warned their people and recommended those destinations to be avoided.

However, the greatest disruptions can be expected in the future, in the event of a local or world wide epidemic. With predictions of millions of people succumbing to the disease, it is easy to foresee all areas being affected. For businesses in particular, it would be interesting to consider the effects such a widespread health conditions could have. Some new reports estimate that up to half of the staff of any business could fall ill or be absent from work. Employers are being warned to take precautions and be prepared for such an event. Although terrorism is a more common concern for anyone today, a bird flu pandemic could cause even greater disruption. It is expected that employees will miss work either to care for others, or prevent an infection, or because they will have been infected themselves. It will therefore be difficult to find cover for the absent staff and the costs of any service is likely to rise considerably.

Furthermore, public transport could be disrupted itself and prevent staff getting to work. It is advisable to research the possibility of some of them working from home. This could prevent a further spread of the virus, while also offering a solution for those only suffering minor symptoms. Supply chains will also be impaired and stocks of different provisions should be taken into consideration. Travel will become very difficult and might not be recommended, as to avoid further spreads. The simplest way any employer can do to prepare for this is a plain information bulletin for their staff to keep them informed on the situation, or even considering all these factors and preparing suitable equipment for them to continue their work from home. It would be wrong to wait and see to what extent the virus will strike, as preparations at that time could prove too little too late

George Velicu is the senior editor at Bird flu center and the man responsible for making the website one of the most comprehensive sources for avian influenza information on the internet.He is also the one keeping a daily record of bird flu's developments

Why We Cannot Depend on a Vaccine to Save Us From Bird Flu

With current vaccine technology a vaccine cannot save us from a pandemic of contagious bird flu.

Although criticized as fearmongering, the ABC made for TV movie First Contact: Bird Flu in America was overly optimistic. Neither us nor the French nor anybody else is going to development and manufacture a vaccine within two months using the technology of the past 50 years.

First, work on a highly targeted vaccine against a specific strain of contagious bird flu cannot even begin until that specific strain of bird flu comes into existence.

Researchers are working on vaccines against current strains of H5N1, and these may have some effect on curbing a contagious strain, because they'd be similar, but not the same.

After getting samples of the contagious form of H5N1, the virus makers begin creating the vaccine from dead viruses. It must be tested for safety and approved for use in humans. This takes time.

After the vaccine is ready, doses of it must be produced. Each dose of the vaccine is grown inside one egg.

The entire process takes 6 to 8 months to produce ordinary winter flu shots. And we know from 2004 that sometimes batches of vaccine are contaminated, and there's a shortage of the ordinary flu vaccine.

Bird flu will create other problems. It's believed that people will need two doses of a vaccine against it for full protection. Therefore, to vaccinate everyone in the United States will require 600 million eggs.

Where will all those eggs come from? The world is destroying chickens by the millions now, to control the spread of H5N1 in the chickens. It could take months to come up with enough eggs to grow the vaccine doses in sufficient quantity to stop the spread of the pandemic just in the United States.

And of course the rest of the world will also be clamoring for the vaccine, and overseas companies will also be manufacturing it, using up all the eggs they have available.

Therefore, Health and Human Services head Michael Leavitt has said it would be six months before an effective and precisely target bird flu vaccine would be ready after the pandemic began.

And remember that the 1918 flu spread throughout the world and killed from 20 to 100 million people in the days before jets connected countries and four-lane highways connected cities within countries. People travel much more and much farther and much more quickly now than in 1918.

And yet the worst of the 1918 flu happened in just three months.

And remember also that H5N1 will remain a virus that mutates quickly. After it becomes highly contagious, it will not stop mutating.

By the time we've designed and approved a vaccine against the original contagious form of the virus, there'll be slightly different strains infecting people.

Six months later, the H5N1 virus will be much different than it was at the beginning of the pandemic.

Producing and distributing to millions of frightened people a vaccine that's precisely targeted toward the virus killing people right now is like shooting at a moving target.

Only we cannot guess where the target is going to go to next.

And it's moving faster than we can re-aim.

Richard Stooker is the author of How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From Bird Flu and Bird Flu Blog

How to Protect Yourself From Bird Flu and Other Infections by Washing Your Hands -- the Right Way

OK, so I sound like your mother -- I accept that. Only I'm worse than your mother, because I want you to wash your hands more often than your mother did.

And for a longer time and more thoroughly.

If and when bird flu mutates into a virus that's contagious between people, we can expect it to spread as easily as ordinary influenza, and the same way ordinary flu does

Ordinary flu (and colds too) spreads primarily in two ways: contact spread and airborne spread.

Airborne spread means that somebody sheds virus by coughing or sneezing, and the small droplets containing the virus hang in the air, and you breath them in. They can hang there for fifteen minutes or more before drifting to the ground.

Experts disagree about whether contact spread or airborne spread causes more new infections of colds and flu.

It's a fact that you can dramatically reduce your chances of catching bird flu, ordinary flu, colds and other commons infections such as caliciviruses which causes nausea (stomach flu) by washing your hands to eliminate the risk of contact spread.

It's true washing your hands won't help you if a bird flu patient sneezes into your face, so avoid that!

Contact spread means the passing along of germs by simple touch. Influenza viruses can live outside a human body for hours. H5N1 bird flu can possibly survive on the outside for days.

So it's entirely possible that one of your co-workers can be infected but not even know it yet. They work at a computer keyboard. They shed some H5N1 viruses onto the keys. You sit down at the keyboard several hours later and do some work. You don't know it, but bird flu is on your hands.

Now, at this stage, the H5N1 is harmless. It cannot pass through the skin of your hands. That's the good news.

The bad news is that most of us touch our hands to our faces every 30 seconds or so. You put your hand on your chin to think. You scratch your nose. You rub your eyes. You chew your fingernail.

That's when the bird flu virus can infect you. It goes from your hands into your body through your mouth, nose and eyes. Then infects your respiratory tract and in a few days you're coughing.

That's why it's so important to wash your hands often in the best of times, more often during ordinary cold and flu season, and compulsively during a bird flu pandemic.

You may think there's no need for this article. Think again. Researchers once ran an experiment in the public restrooms of Grand Central Station. They installed cameras to observe how many people washed their hands after doing their business. They observed hundreds of men and women of every social class, economic class, race and ethnicity -- from the homeless to the wealthy.

60% failed to wash their hands at all!

Under 10% washed their hands thoroughly.

Almost nobody washed their hands thoroughly and then avoided touching the rest room surfaces before leaving.

You should wash your hands after using the bathroom and before meals, as your mother taught you. You should also wash your hands occasionally during the day. Especially after shaking hands with someone (when it's polite to do so, of course), after you've been handling anybody else's things (such as using someone else's pens or computer keyboard), after you've coughed or sneezed, after preparing dishes while cooking -- and even more often during the regular flu and cold season and throughout a bird flu pandemic.

Don't become as crazy as Howard Hughes in old age, but do wash your hands often, the proper way.

Use soap and water. Water should be a comfortable temperature. When it's too cold it won't dissolve the soap as easily. Too hot and of course it'll burn you.

Lather up well and rub the soap all over your hands and fingers, including under your fingernails, for twenty to thirty seconds. Rinse. Repeat.

In public restrooms, don't touch any surfaces with your now clean hands. Turn off faucet with paper towel. Push door open with paper towel.

In some places (such as where I work), there's no soap available, only a lotion of the germicide triclosan.

Scientists disagree about using triclosan. Some believe it's a harmful chemical. Some believe it encourages resistance to germicides in the germs. Some believe it upset the balance of natural germs on our skin.

If you have a choice, scrub your hands thoroughly with soap and water. If you have no choice, just use the triclosan. Chances are you won't even notice.

Some of the same arguments apply to germicide hands lotions made from isopropyl alcohol, which you find stores full of during the Fall beginning of flu season. Except that some people say that when the alcohol evaporates it dries the skin of your hands creating small cracks that allow more dirt inside your skin.

Therefore, I use my hand lotion of isopropyl alcohol only when I feel my hands are so dirty that I want some extra protection besides a thorough scrubbing of soap and water. Hey, sometimes that happens after I use the toilet.

And during a bird flu pandemic -- I'm applying that germicide hand lotion ten times a day, cracks in the skin or no cracks in the skin. Especially if I've touched anyone or handled any objects that may have been exposed to anybody else.

Richard Stooker is the author of How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From Bird Flu and Bird Flu Blog

Why a Bird Flu Pandemic Will Be Such a World Catastrophe

We are moving closer every day to a world influenza pandemic. New cases of bird flu are being discovered in more countries. 88 people worldwide since 2003, who have had close contact with infected birds have died. Scientists fear that when the bird flu virus mutates or mixes with normal influenza viruses then it will be in a form that passes easily from person to person. The 1918 influenza that killed 40-50 million people world wide, started in Kansas and moved around the world within 9 months. And that was without the type of air travel we have today.

Governments around the world are scrambling to prevent this from happening. Billions of dollars in new aid is going for surveillance and reporting of new cases as they happen, prevent them from spreading and stockpiling antivirals in the event it does happen. The medical community is working on new vaccines that may be used on a wide scale in the event of an outbreak. But will all this be enough? High volume production and distribution of a pandemic vaccine could take 6 months or more after the start of a pandemic event. Government reporting of new cases could be delayed long enough for preventive aid from doing any good. New cases in rural areas could go undetected for weeks or months.

Once human transmission is confirmed, containment will be the next big hurdle. As millions become ill, the global economy will start to feel the effects. Transportation, travel, tourism, trade, retail, education will all suffer. Panic could wreck havoc with the world financial markets in short order. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Every hospital in the country will have a shortage of beds, ventilators and staff. In the event of a natural disaster, it is one thing for aid to come from other areas but in the event of a pandemic no one will have the aid or manpower to spare.

The World Bank has estimated that a influenza pandemic lasting a year would cost the global economy $800 billion dollars. How would we recover from that? The economic consequences of a influenza pandemic would be catastrophic. Businesses large and small will be affected by loss of workers, supplies and distribution of goods and services. Some businesses will never recover. Those who do may be missing key employees who died. Economic recovery will be painfully slow.

A flu pandemic would affect some of the world's poorest people the hardest. They are the ones who don't have access to proper health care now. They are the ones who are falling through the social services cracks now. Elderly persons who are already homebound, may be forgotten about. In countries in Africa that are already devastated by HIV, poor health care, famine and war, whole nations could be wiped out.

Social unrest and political upheaval are sure to follow. Governments will be blamed for doing too little too late. Conspiracies about how pharmaceutical companies withheld new vaccines or antivirals will be rampant. Price gouging, profit motives and horror stories about how people suffered will fill the news for months to come. A different political landscape will form to make sure this kind of suffering never happens again.

A global flu pandemic will affect the lives of everyone with catastrophic results. You need to continue to stay informed on the latest bird flu news and how you can prepare for a pandemic. Health experts agree it is just a matter of time that there will be a pandemic.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Bird Flu--Worst-Case Scenario

There has been a lot of buzz about bird flu or the avian influenza and how it could become a global pandemic. What would a pandemic really mean? The federal government just launched a 7 billion dollar program to help the prevention and out break of a bird flu pandemic. There have only been 88 deaths from avian flu worldwide since 2003. Health experts have not yet seen evidence of human to human transmission. So what does it mean? And why is everyone so worried about a pandemic?

This new strain of flu virus would be more resistant than other normal flu strains and if it turns into a form that passes easily from person to person, we would have little immunity to it. Millions could become ill and millions would die. Once it starts to spread it could move rapidly around the world infecting millions and affecting the lives of everyone. The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic. What is the worst-case scenario and how might it develop?

Here is how a bird flu pandemic might unfold:

Outbreaks of avian flu in birds continue in several additional countries outside of Southeast Asia including Russia, Africa and the Middle East

Human cases of bird flu increase

Health experts confirm first human-to-human transmissions

Flu screening is stepped up at airports around the world for passengers coming from infected countries

Health care workers show signs of increased exposure

Air travel spreads virus to all corners of the globe within 3 months

First confirmed human transmission cases appear in Europe Russia, and the United States

Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespread reaching epidemic status

Regional stockpiles of antivirals quickly dwindle, new high volume production and distribution is 6 months off

International flights are reduced or eliminated to help contain spread of the flu

Billions are lost on international commerce, affecting millions of jobs around the world

US imports from Asian factories halted as Asian workers fall ill, US inventories drop

International trade devastated

US economy feels effects of loss of productivity due to millions of workers out sick

Financial markets hit by panic selling, gold prices soar Run on banks as investors convert to cash

Hospitals see surge in flu patients overwhelming staff and supplies, only those most likely to live given access to limited available ventilators

Healthcare workers and first responders out sick or stay home to care for ill family members

Public events are canceled and schools are closed

Government offices closed, non essential services shut down

Social services reduced or eliminated. Services still functioning are overwhelmed

Public transportation halted

Air traffic halted due to air traffic controllers, airport staff and flight crews out sick

Interstate commerce greatly reduced with truck drivers, warehouse and rail workers out sick

Food deliveries, gas deliveries, other essential supplies all reduced or eliminated

Grocery stores close due to shipments being eliminated

Food distribution chain from farm to stores breaks down

Travel restricted, quarantines mandatory, enforced by National Guard

Widespread looting and riots over food shortages and access to healthcare

Local, State police and National Guard overwhelmed

Social structure breaks down

Domestic violence increases as people are forced to stay home

Loss of workers affects all businesses across the economy, including finance, sanitation, utilities, internet, distribution, energy, retail, tourism and travel

Utility outages increase as coal shipments are reduced and minimum required staffs at power plants and water plants are out sick

Funeral homes are overwhelmed as bodies stack up

2nd wave of pandemic bird flu hits

Global economy will take years to recover from catastrophic losses and loss of trained employees who died

Does the above scare you? Think it won't happen? Well this is the exact scenario your local, state and federal governments are training and planning for. How would you survive? It has always been recommended to keep 3 days of supplies on hand to survive a natural disaster. We have seen how the federal government handles natural disasters. The above scenario isn't for 3 days or 3 weeks. It might last up to 3 years.

How would you survive being housebound for several months? What if you couldn't go to work or to the grocery store? What if you had love ones that were sick? You need to stay informed about a possible bird flu pandemic and learn how to provide for yourself and your family. It may not happen in the near future but health experts agree it will happen. It is just a matter of time.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Don't Count On A Bird Flu Vaccine, Count On A Nanomask

You've no doubt seen the news reports about Bird Flu, a deadly airborne virus. And you no doubt feel at risk and vulnerable.

A Bird Flu vaccine is months and months away from production, and production will be a problem since health officials believe it will take at least 1 year to make enough for all citizens. Even then, it may not be effective, since it was based on an earlier seed of the virus. Bird Flu, or H5N1, mutates rapidly. Today, Bird Flu is something entirely different than when it was first discovered.

But there is one, off-the-shelf, device that will protect you and your family against Bird Flu, SARS, and ordinary flu, right now. It's called NanoMask, manufactured by a company that originally was tasked to make a better biomask for our military troops.

Why is a filter mask the best tool you can have against Bird Flu? Because of its new nano-technology. A NanoMask isn't just an ordinary N95 mask like you see in hospitals or on construction sites.

N95 masks are not effective against any particulate, virus, or bacteria smaller than .3 microns, and thus a waste of money if you buy an N95 mask for the purpose of blocking H5N1 or any influenza virus. Even hospitals realize this and are now ordering NanoMasks.

Examine the table below showing virus sizes, so you can judge for yourself how effective the NanoMask is. The abbreviation nm means nanometer, which is one billionth of a meter. N95 can only filter out material greater in size than .3 microns, which equal to 300 nanometers.

Every virus you see in the table below is smaller than 300 nanometers, therefore, N95's are useless against these viruses.

Virus (Description) | Size

Bacteriophage (MS) | 220nm
Hepatitis | 24nm - 30nm
Adenovirus | 70nm HIV
(AIDS) | 80nm
Cytomegalovirus | 100nm
Orthomyxovirus | 120nm
Coronavirus (SARS) | 80nm - 160nm

According to Nelson Laboratories of Salt Lake City, an independent testing lab of such filters, Bacteriophage MS-2 is the recognized standard testing organism for many filters. Being one of the smallest used viruses at 20nm, it is able to give a higher challenge to the filter media.

NanoMask has been tested down to 27 nanometers or .027 microns. Good enough to stop H5N1, SARS, and other viruses listed in the Virus Size Table above, as well as ordinary influenza.

The unique design and enhanced facial seal allows the NanoMask to overcome the most critical failing of typical N95 masks: an inability to effectively seal against the face and filter inhaled and exhaled breath that will typically follow the path of least resistance - around the sides of the mask.

The president of Emergency Filtration, Doug Beplate, told this author that the primary reason NanoMasks are so successful in stopping viruses is their unique nanoparticle coating on each filter. Beplate said, "The nanoparticle coating joins with chlorine particles to achieve an arrest and eradication of undesirable agents." In other words, biohazardous particulates like H5N1 are not only blocked, but destroyed, thanks to the nanoparticle coating.

A traditional filter without the nanoparticle coating, like N95, would turn into a breeding ground for a virus or bacterial agent. Thus we caution you against using any N95 mask in a pandemic or epidemic, or even to stop ordinary colds.

We cannot stress enough the importance of ordering NanoMask right now, before H5N1 or any other pandemic strikes. It's saving lives in Asia right now. More than 2 million Asians are wearing NanoMasks.

Of all the methods available to protect your family, such as antivirals, vaccines, herbs, etc., a NanoMask is the least costly in terms of time and money, and probably the most effective. Don't get caught off guard by a U.S. transportation strike or postal strike, or a thin supply. And don't count on a vaccine, or Tamiflu. Count on NanoMask, it's available right now.

About the author:
John Hart is a science writer, and the author of the popular eBook "How to Protect Your Family Against the Coming Pandemic," available at http://www.urgentebooks.comMr. Hart is also a distributor of NanoMasks at http://www.buynanomask.comA free copy of his eBook comes with each NanoMask order.