The Beginning of Sorrows and the Bird Flu

Matthew 24:7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places. 8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.

The Greek word that we translated pestilence from is loimos, meaning a "troublemaker, public menace". The Webster's New World dictionary defines pestilence as -1: any virulent or fatal contagious or infectious disease, esp. one of epidemic proportions, as bubonic plague. as -2: anything, as a doctrine, regarded as harmful or dangerous

When we see pestilence it is a public menace. Since in this passage above it is associated with 'Famines and earthquakes', we see the kind of menace it is. It referring to any 'public menace' that follows such kinds of disasters like Famines or earthquakes. In the course of events we find that following such things as the aforementioned 'famines or even earthquakes' disease is the number one thing to watch out for. As the events unfold, the course of civilization is shattered. The facilities that contained outbreaks such as disease and plagues are gone. The atmosphere is ripe for the outbreak of cholera, bubonic plague, and small pox to mention a few things. These are but a few public menaces that can follow famines, earthquakes, or similar events. The news in the last few months has been focused on the 'bird flu'. This is a 'public menace' and therefore classified in the 'pestilence category. It is not associated with the 'famines or earthquakes' scenario's. But it is seen as a last day sign, nonetheless.

In bible designation according to the "ISBE" of pestilence , it is "any sudden fatal epidemic" and in its Biblical use "it generally indicates that these are Divine visitation". The Latin word "pestilentia" is connected with "Pestia" meaning "the plague", but "pestilence is used of any visitation and is not the name of any special disease" according to 'The International Standard Bible Encyclopedia", p 2348. We find the word 'pestilences occurs only in two places Matthew 24:7 and Luke 21:11 and pestilence occurs throughout the Old testament with 47 references.

What we do know is that the end time scenario is filled with plagues, disease, death, judgments, and chaos on the earth. In Revelation chapter six we see the 'four horsemen of the apocalypse[the unveiling]'. This is the events leading up to the revealing of the 'coming Messiah- Yeshua HaMassiach or Jesus Christ as we call him in the English. This book of Revelation then is the unveiling of those things, revealing to us what to expect.

In the unveiling of the fourth seal, we see the horses let loose on the earth. In this we find the pangs of judgment about to hit the earth and mankind. This rider on the Pale horse brings with him-death and hell- with power to kill with: sword[war-murder], hunger[famine-starvation], death, and beasts of the field[diseases from animals is seen here among other deaths produced by the beasts]

Revelation 6:7 And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see. 8 And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.

Jesus our Lord said of this time to not 'let that day come upon you unawares'. he said it would come on 'all them that dwell on the face of the whole earth as a snare'. He also said to 'Watch ye therefore, and pray always, that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man

Therefore, from these things, we conclude the 'Bird flu' is just one among many coming 'public menaces' that will befall people in the Last days before the return of Jesus Christ to this earth.

Luke 21:34 And take heed to yourselves, lest at any time your hearts be overcharged with surfeiting, and drunkenness, and cares of this life, and so that day come upon you unawares. 35 For as a snare shall it come on all them that dwell on the face of the whole earth. 36 Watch ye therefore, and pray always, that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man.

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Preparing For A Natural Disaster, Terrorists Attack Or Bird Flu Pandemic

How prepared are you? Will you be like thousands of others and wait until the last minute to stock up on food and water? Do you even have a working flashlight in your home or auto? As we have clearly seen, waiting until it is too late does not work. Grocery stores run out, gas stations run dry and we certainly can?t depend on the government to help.

You need to start planning today, preparing for the unexpected so that you and your family can survive. Official sources always recommend having a 72 hour or 3 day kit. While it certainly helps, it is nowhere near adequate for an extended survival situation. As we have seen a natural disaster can last for more than 3 days. A possible bird flu pandemic may keep you housebound for weeks or months at a time. So how much is enough and what do you need?

You should plan on meeting your family?s daily needs for a minimum of a month, preferably up to 3 months or longer. This can include:

Food?Stock up on the basics. Flour, sugar, non-perishable foods like macaroni products, rice (a 25lb bag of rice is around $6.00 at SAM?s club), dried milk. Canned goods usually are good for a year or two. Start adding to your pantry now by buying a few extra items every time you go to the grocery store. Take advantage of sales, coupons and store brands. Buy foods you can fix easily, don?t need a lot of water or don?t need to be cooked at all. You can also add to your supply long term dehydrated foods that you can supplement your other food stores. They are vacuumed sealed and have a shelf life of 20-30 years. MRE?s ready to eat meals can also expand your food stores. Buy food and supplies in bulk at Sams club or Costco. Rotate your stock so you always have the freshest food available. Also include things like high-energy bars. Don?t forget pet food.

Water?You can store water in large containers, 5-gallon mylar water bags, camping jugs and other containers. You should also own a good water purifier.

Tools?are you equipped to handle minor repairs around your home? Fix your auto? Repair or build needed survival supplies? Tools to turn off natural gas, shovels to dig out, chainsaws to cut up downed trees and other essential rescue tools may be needed.

Energy?there may be interruptions or outages in electrical and other utilities. Do you have an alternative way of heating your home? A way of supplying power to lights and other needed electrical devices? Stocked up on batteries? A portable generator can be used for emergency backup. You will need gas to run the generator. Solar panels are handy for charging batteries. Extra propane can be used for a stove, lights or heat. Have several flashlights on hand. Newer flashlights feature L.E.D. bulbs that burn brighter and last forever. Also look for hand cranked flashlights that don?t need batteries. Include lighting such as oil or propane lanterns.

Medical? a good first aid kit is a must have. Over the counter drugs such as ibuprofen, aspirin, antacids, etc. Also personal medications and other first aid supplies. Don?t forget spare glasses/contacts and contact lens solution. Brush up on your first aid skills.

Household supplies?everything from shampoo and toothpaste to toilet paper, soap, detergent, bleach, disinfectants and everything else you use on a daily basis. Don?t forget hair clippers if you can?t get out to the barber. Have supplies on hand to deal with sanitation and garbage.

Communication?Newer walkie-talkies that have a 10-12 mile range will help you stay in touch with your family in the event your cell phone stops working. Give each member of your family one and tune them all to the same channel. Buy an emergency battery for your cell phone. They are good for about 60 minutes of talk time. Portable shortwave radios will help you keep in touch with the world. A small portable tv will also help keep you informed if the power is out. A hand cranked radio is also a must have.

Camping equipment?stoves, tents, sleeping bags can all come in handy especially if you need to relocate. Pick up camping supplies on sale and used equipment at garage sales.

Bicycles?if you need to get around and there is no gas a bike is the best item to have.

Relocating?if you choose not to stay in your home, then you need a plan on how you will relocate-to another town or remote cabin, etc. You may want to stock your vacation home with supplies and be prepared to ?bug out? before travel is restricted.

Figure out how far you need to get away. Think about storing extra gas to provide a full tank and enough for your journey. 3 or 4?5 gallon gas cans, could be enough to get you several hundred miles away. Because of the fire danger it is very important that you store them safely and rotate them on a regular basis. Meaning, if you have 3 filled cans, week one dump that in your gas tank and refill that can. Week 2 dump the second can in your gas tank and refill that can. Week 3 dump can 3 into your gas tank and refill that can. Week 4 start over with can one. Using this system you will always have 15 gallons of fresh gas on hand in addition to gas that is already in your gas tank.

Plan your exit strategy from your city or town. Keep a map in your car with the roads out highlighted. Find all the alternative routes out of your city or town. Stay away from main highways if at all possible. Have copies of the map in other vehicles if other family members need to meet you later. Practice your escape route by driving it at least once.

Store your ?bug out? survival supplies in containers that can be quickly loaded into your vehicle. Keep a smaller version in your vehicle at all times.

Start today preparing for the unexpected and if it happens you won?t need to divert your time and energy away from caring for your family, waiting in long lines for essential goods and services or waiting for the government or other aid organizations to come to your rescue.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, blogs, forums, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global pandemic.The latest bird flu news at http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Questions To Ask Your Employer Before A Bird Flu Pandemic

Bird flu? Have you heard of it? You have probably been hearing more about it in the news lately. What is it and why should you be worried about it? Avian influenza affects poultry and wild game birds. It has been mainly in Southeast Asia but is spreading to other countries. Since 2003 160 people worldwide have become ill and about 82 have died. It is deadly to poultry and can be lethal in humans as well. The people who have contacted bird flu have been in close contact with infected birds. At this time it is not transmitted by human-to-human contact. But scientists fear, and health experts agree, that it is only a matter of time that the virus will change into a form that can be easily passed from person to person. When that happens there will be an increased risk of a worldwide pandemic.

We will not have immunity to this form of the flu and it can be deadly. It may be similar to the 1918 flu that killed 40-50 million people around the world. If it starts to spread, life as we know it will change. Millions will become ill and millions will die around the world. This flu could last for months at a time and up to three years. More than likely schools and businesses would be closed, public events canceled, transportation shut down and travel severely limited. Meaning your only choice is to stay home with your family.

Your business or company may have anywhere from 30-60% of the employees out sick, or out to take care of ill family members.

A bird flu pandemic could last for weeks or months at a time. You may be out of work for several months. You may want to start taking some measures now so you are prepared for being out of work and loss of income.

You need to ask your employer how they will be handling a pandemic crisis. What will their policies be? How are they going to provide a healthy work environment so that it will minimize the spread of the flu? How is your health insurance? Does it need to be updated? Will they offer additional sick time or paid leave of absence? Can you get a wage or salary advance or partial advance? Who will fill in for you, if you are out sick or need to stay home with family members who are ill? Are your co-workers crossed trained? What happens if you need to stay home with your children because schools are closed? Can your business run with 50% of employees out sick? What happens if the business needs to shut down completely? How do they plan on communicating with employees who are at home? Are there options for working at home? What if you need to leave the area to go somewhere safer? Will you have a job when you return? These are the type of questions you need to start asking today before a bird flu pandemic.

You will want to make copies of your employment agreements, health and life insurance policies and other employee documents including investment plans, stock options and other benefits. If we enter a pandemic and you need to stay home and be out of work for several months, you may want to consider tapping into any investment plans to find available cash to carry you through. A global influenza pandemic will have catastrophic consequences worldwide that will affect your business, career, investments, home, family and community. Stay informed about the bird flu and start planning for a possible pandemic.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, blogs, forums, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global pandemic

7 Things You Can Do To Prevent Bird Flu [Virus Protection]

Everyday we hear about it. The GREAT Avian Flu PANDEMIC is upon us. But remember the 1918 Spanish Flu or the Influenza Pandemic of 1918 [which came from chickens] only killed 40 million people. So we don't need to worry.

Wait a minute! ONLY 40 million people died. That's terrible. Especially if we were among the 40 million.

But they didn't have a vaccine like we have. What? We don't have a vaccine either?

Well the experts say we WILL have one. About a year AFTER the Avian Flu hits.

Will the Bird Flu hit us? Chances are moderate to high.

Well what can we do to prevent getting it?

1. If the flu travels from people to people, stay away from people. Avoid subways, buses, theaters, and other places where people gather in large numbers.

2. Don't shake hands. This is where most people catch viruses. They shake the hand of someone who is infected and then pick their own nose and voila, they have the flu. Use the old ?Peace Sign? instead of shaking hands.

3. Wash your hands a lot with a sanitizing soap. I like the soap put out by the Melaleuca company.

4. Don't pick your nose. That is the main entrance into your body. Your Momma told you this when you were a kid. Smart lady.

5. If the Pandemic gets going, wear a surgical mask when around people. Don't use anything you get off the grocery shelf. Most are so full of dangerous chemicals and may be worse than the Bird Flu.

6. Take a Grapefruit Seed Extract each day. We use a mixture of GSE and several other citrus extracts. These have been known for decades to stop viruses inside the body. And unlike pharmaceuticals they have a low cost which keeps drug
companies from messing it up.

7. Use a botanical spray to kill any viruses on the surfaces you touch. I like sprays with Tea Tree Oil or Grapefruit Seed Extract.

Think this sounds like too much trouble or is too sissified? Then don't do it. After the Plaque of 1666 the people who survived inherited the wealth of those who died. If you live you might become very wealthy. If you don't, your relatives might get really wealthy.

For 30 years, Dr Graham has been helping people treat and prevent disease by showing them how to create a healthy healing world. DrGraham@themoldlab.com newsletter at AmericanEcoDog-subscribe@yahoogroups.com http://www.tennesseemold.com

Global Spread Of Bird Flu

The H5N1 strain of bird flu virus is what scientists expect to be the next big worldwide pandemic to hit. What are scaring them more are the deadly effects it has had on some of the few human victims it has so far affected.

The H5N1 strain has so far hit a handful people in various areas of the world. The affected people were those that came in contact with infected birds. This article shows us the global affect of the H5N1 strain so far.

? The H5N1 strain attracted very little attention way back in 1997 at Guang Dong China. This is because it had affected very few geese and poultry at the time.

? The first case of infected humans was reported on 1997 at Hong Kong. 6 of the 17 people infected died.

? It once reemerged on 2003 at Vietnam infecting three people. All of which died.

? The outbreak became more prevalent during January 2004, affecting 10 Asian countries. It started out in Vietnam and Thailand, eventually finding its way to South Korea, Indonesia, Japan and China. Over 40 million domesticated birds were slaughtered to prevent affecting humans. During this time 23 people from Vietnam and Thailand died.

? On July 2004 fresh outbreaks once again happened at China and Thailand.

? During august 2004, Singapore banned poultry from Malaysia because a place in their country was infected again. The EU also banned all poultry products from Malaysia.

? During October 2004, scientist discovered that the H5N1 strain is deadlier than once believed. They found out that the mortality rate of those infected is around 100%.

? November 2004 a team was created to further study the effects it could cause on humans. The project was called the Influenza Genome Sequencing Project.

? January 2005, nearly 1.2 million poultry were killed at Vietnam because 33 out 64 cities and provinces have been hit by the H5N1 strain. The number of birds that died ranged up to 140 million.

? Cambodia is hit with the first human bird flu victim, making surveillance at the country stricter.

? There have been isolated cases of human to human transfer on Vietnam and Thailand during the period of March 2005.

? Eight more people have been detected infected on April 2005 at Vietnam.

? On May 2005, reports were given that 97 people were infected, 53 of whom died at Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Vietnam being the country most hit with 76 infected and 37 deaths.

? The first infected victim was reported on Indonesia on July 2005 and 2 more died at Vietnam.

? The virus later spread during August 2005 reaching Kazakhstan, Mongolia and western Russia. During this period 38 people died at China from a swine virus. Making officials from WHO worried. This is because pigs are great breeding grounds for bird flu virus as well.

? September 2005 David Nabarro informed people that the outbreak of the H5N1 could kill 5 to 150 million people. He also said that the outbreak could start in Africa or the Middle East. As of yesterday, H5N1 has been found on Africa.

? As of October and November 2005 the H5N1 strain has been found at Turkey and Kuwait respectively.

? China reports its third death from the bird flu on December 2005.

The spread of the H5N1 strain as of now may seem slow. But we should really be thankful that this virus is not yet becoming a pandemic. Because in reality the world is not yet ready.

Michael Colucci is a technical writer for http://www.bird-flu-facts.org - A free site that offers facts on the history, prevention, vaccines and more on the Bird Flu Virus.

Bird flu and Your Personal Safety

The world we live in today is not safer than the one known by our parents and grandparents. If you've kept up with the news lately, you've heard terrible warnings about bird flu. It's the most serious known health threat the world is facing that has swept through the world bird population.

There's never a total absence of risks in our lives. Risks are voluntary actions and can be managed. Emergencies can be met and handled, but it takes know-how and continuous awareness. What you can't prevent, you can usually compensate for or protect against. With alarm growing over the possibility of a bird flu pandemic, we all must acknowledge the fact that we bear some of the responsibility for making our environment safe and safety is thinking about other people, too.

"Remember that we live on the same planet and our interests are interconnected"

The following statements provide a summary of bird flu outbreaks:

* It's caused by the influenza A (H5N1) virus. * The infection can occur through the inhalation of the material infected with virus like cages, bird feeds, clothing, shoes of workers in farms, and any contaminated equipment. * There is a greater risk of getting bird flu while handling the infected bird or infected eggs than eating these foods, as most cases of bird flu infection in humans have resulted from direct or close contact with infected poultry or surfaces contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected birds. * Scientists believe that at least some migratory waterfowl are now carrying the virus and introducing the virus to poultry droves in areas that lie along their migratory routes. * Within a country the disease spreads easily from farm to farm. Even small quantities of bird droppings carry a large load of the virus. * Bird flu can appear within 1 - 5 days after contact with the infected material. * It can pass from bird to bird, and from bird to human. No noticeable evidence to confirm human-to-human transmission of bird flu.The fear is that mutation of the virus will cause it to be easily spread from person to person, since flu viruses can change rapidly. * The symptoms of bird flu in humans have ranged from standard flu-like symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches to eye infections and other complications. * It has killed around 55% of the people it has infected so far. * Humans have no immunity to it. * There is no vaccine. Any new vaccine will be limited, not widely available. * Antibiotics are useless against virus-caused flu. * It can be contained through quarantine.

The best way to cut the risk of attack is by taking sensible precautions. You are probably already aware of some of the precautions listed below, but some may be new to you, and you may find them useful. According to The US Department of Agriculture; "Proper handling and cooking of poultry provides further protection against this virus, as it does against many viruses and bacteria, including Salmonella and E.coli. Safe food handling and preparation is important at all times". Here is a summary of USDA recommendations: * Wash hands with warm water and soap for at least 20 seconds before and after handling food (like fresh poultry and or eggs; * Prevent cross-contamination by keeping raw meat, poultry, fish, and their juices away from other foods; * After cutting raw meats, wash cutting board, knife, and counter tops with hot, soapy water; * Sanitize cutting boards by using a solution of 1 teaspoon chlorine bleach in 1 quart of water; and * Use a food thermometer to ensure food has reached the proper temperature. Cook whole birds to 180 ?F; breasts to 170 ?F; drumsticks, thighs and wings to 180 ?F; ground turkey and chicken to 165? F; and a minimum oven temperature of 325 ?F.

To paraphrase ... If the food is well cooked, there is hardly any risk of getting bird flu as no data suggest that the disease can be transmitted to humans through properly cooked food (even if contaminated with the virus prior to cooking). And in general, frequent and thorough hand washing is to be observed to avoid getting the disease during processing and cooking of possibly infected poultry.

While your government will follow certain policy and procedures to prepare for a pandemic, people action and people responsibility are of vital importance for the success of any plan to maximize our preparation So if there is an outbreak of the bird flu virus, the solution is readily available if people would just get the right information on flu prevention and treatment with vaccines or other medical products. Knowledge is POWER and we need to be prepared for an outbreak of bird flu.

Altogether, more than 50% of the confirmed cases have been fatal. This kind of flu in humans is still a relatively rare disease, but a very strict one that must be taken into consideration and closely studied, because of the potential this virus to evolve in ways that could cause a human pandemic.

You are welcome to use this article on your website WITH the 'Author's Resource Box' below included.

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Preparing Your Finances for a Bird Flu Pandemic

If you have been paying attention to the news lately you may of heard of the threat of bird flu and a world pandemic. What would this mean and how would it affect your financial holdings. The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion dollars. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic. That is a forecast no investor wants to hear. Even a "mild" pandemic could wreck havoc with your investments.

During a flu pandemic millions of people would be unable to work due to illness and taking care of sick family members. Schools and businesses would be closed, transportation reduced or halted. Ill truck drivers, rail and warehouse workers would bring interstate commerce to a grinding halt. How many air traffic controllers could be out sick before flights were cancelled? International travel would all but be eliminated. Businesses hardest hit would include retail, trade, education, travel and tourism, public entertainment and anywhere large groups of people would gather such as sporting events and concerts. Import and exports markets would be devastated.

With millions out of work and unable to pay their bills including rent and mortgage payments, financial institutions facing mounting defaults would have no choice but to suspend debt owed until the pandemic was over. Other financial institutions would face similar threats of collapse until business returned to normal. But, how long would that take? Thousands of businesses may never be able to recover resulting in the loss of millions of jobs. Large and small businesses alike may loose key employees who would be difficult to replace. Moving forward businesses would face labor shortages due to the millions who died, making a return to full productivity difficult.

The global economy could take years to recover. Individual business recovery could be painfully slow. Government spending to aid recovery would go through the roof, yet they would be receiving less in tax revenue from businesses that closed and individuals out of work. The stock value of the largest businesses could collapse devaluing millions of investor's portfolios. Investors may dump their stock holdings in favor of cash and hard assets like gold and silver. Housing prices could plunge as millions of homeowners go into default. Financial panic could wreck the markets in short order.

Many essential items could be in short supply due to loss of production capacity. Gas and oil deliveries could take months to return to normal production. Consumer spending would be down further delaying economic recovery.

Global instability would be the rule rather than the exception. 3rd world countries devastated by the pandemic could face new internal struggles for power as whole armies could be wiped out by the flu. International trade relations we once had may no longer be there.

A world pandemic would set the dominos in motion. One event would trigger another; one financial collapse would bring on the next one. The results would be nothing short of catastrophic.

As an investor your first course of action is to stay informed. A bird flu pandemic may not happen for years, but health experts say it will happen, it is just a matter of time. But then there is always natural disasters and terrorism to worry about. The more you know about a possible bird flu pandemic the better position you will be in to adjust your portfolio accordingly when the time comes if not sooner.

Diverting a portion of your assets into stocking up on essential food and supplies may be a prudent move, since a pandemic may keep you housebound for months at a time. No well-diversified portfolio will help you out when the grocery stores are closed and you are waiting in line for a government hand out.

Stay informed, plan accordingly, and be prepared.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Bird Flu Facts Can Save Lives

Doctors and scientists around the world fear it may well become the next pandemic. People have died and many are concerned it's just a matter of time before the crafty bird flu manages to spread not only from bird to human but also from human to human.

The scare level is high as scientists race to create a vaccine and reports of deaths slowly rack up. But what is the bird flu and what can be done to prevent its spread, and more importantly, protect people?

The bird flu is a strain of influenza occurs naturally in birds. Much like humans, wild birds all over the world carry viruses in their intestines, but generally don't become sick from them. Avian influenza, however, is different and can make some birds, including chickens, ducks and turkeys quite sick and can even result in death.

While most bird viruses don't effect humans, the latest strains have been creating problems in the human world, thus the concerns. Since 1997 there have been 100 confirmed cases of human infection with bird flu viruses.

People can become infected with bird flu through close contact with infected birds and most especially their excretions and secretions. Although the spread of the illness from one person to the next has been reported only rarely, and even then not beyond one additional person, there are many concerns in the scientific and medical communities that this will not continue. Viruses such as the flu are well known for their abilities to mutate and there's no reason to believe that won't be the case with this quite deadly strain of flu.

Avian flu symptoms in humans are very much like those of run-of-the-mill flu - with a wide variety found. These can include cough, sore throat, fever, eye infections, respiratory issues and other life-threatening complications.

While it's believed the medications that can help ease the symptoms of human flu viruses might help in the case of the avian flu, there are concerns the bird virus will become resistant to these drugs, creating a bigger issue. At this time there is no vaccine for the bird flu either.

At this point, it is not believed a person can become infected with the bird flu by eating poultry or eggs. As long as safe cooking practices are followed, there should be little concern. To avoid exposure, make sure chicken and eggs are properly cooked and take care to clean up well following preparation. Washing hands and kitchen surfaces is an absolute must. Sanitary practices are a must in avoiding the bird flu and lots of other viruses and bacterial conditions as well.

Will the avian flu become the next pandemic, striking and perhaps killing thousands and thousands the world over?

Unfortunately, only time will tell. The potential, scientists fear, is absolutely there. The only way at this point for people to protect themselves is to use common sense when handling birds - either domestic or wild. Don't eat, drink or smoke while handling birds, live or dead. Wash hands thoroughly and use caution while cooking.

As it is with so many other illnesses, the simple act of hand washing frequently and correctly can go a long way toward minimizing exposure.

Bird flu update and safety precautions.

http://www.bird-flu-report.com

The virus that causes bird flu

The virus that causes bird flu appears to be versatile and resilient. Scientists are working on a new vaccine that would be effective against the new strain of the virus that causes Bird flu. There are different subtypes and strains of the virus that causes bird flu, and some cause more severe disease than others. Results of the examinations for the H5N1 virus that causes bird flu are be announced later on Sunday, officials said. Certainly the virus that causes bird flu could mutate so that it could be transmitted from human to human.

A new type of a virus that causes bird flu appeared in Japan, Reuters announced. Do not assume that any form of bird flu killed the ducks or geese, because these birds can die from many other causes.

poultry industry tests continuously to make sure the virus that causes Asian bird flu doesn't get a foothold in commercial poultry flocks. At present, the virus that causes Asian bird flu does not easily infect humans. The H5N1 virus which causes bird flu struck a human being for the first time in 1997. It appears that the H5N1 bird-flu virus causes a massive immunological response against the virus in those with the strongest immune systems.

An influenza outbreak among birds occurs when the virus causes serious illness or death and is spread from bird to bird. Migratory water fowl, and ducks in particular, carry the virus that causes bird flu. This bird flu strain mutates rapidly, easily mixes with viruses from other species and causes severe disease in humans. The Bird Flu virus causes severe flu-like symptoms in people and may result in death.

Proper cooking kills the virus that causes bird flu. An 18-year-old man became the ninth person in Vietnam to die after contracting the H5N1 virus, which causes bird flu. Turkish health ministry officials confirmed that in seven cases of ill individuals, the virus identified was the one that causes bird flu. For three reasons: 1.They don't change because unlike humans birds don't have immunity towards influenza which causes them no reason to mutate.

Infection with bird flu viruses in domestic poultry causes two main forms of disease that are distinguished by low and high extremes of virulence.

For more information about the Causes Bird Flu, please visit our website at http://ngullen.com/causesbirdflu or our blog: http://bird-flu-news-review.blogspot.com/

Bird Flu Spreading Rapidly In Europe ? EU Nations Take Precautions

H5N1 bird flu struck another country today as Hungary became the latest European nation to discover the deadly disease in migrating swans. Over the past seven days, H5N1 has been in seven new countries; five of them being in Europe. The results of this rapid spread are causing European nations to take a variety of actions to protect both their poultry industry and their citizens.

Yesterday, Albania banned the importation of poultry products from any country that is known to have had occurrences of H5N1. At the same time, Germany has ordered that domestic poultry be confined to indoor pens as of February 17. Today, France also ordered that all domestic poultry be kept in indoor pens, where it can not be exposed to migratory wild birds.

As of last week, Bulgaria banned the hunting of wild birds by sportsmen. Bulgaria discovered H5N1 is several dead swans found in the wetlands of the Danube River.

The spread of H5N1 is having immediate economic consequences. In Italy, where the disease was discovered over the weekend, sales of chicken dropped by 50% in the three days following the government announcement that the disease was present in the country. Layoffs have already started to occur.

On the other hand, Ireland is reporting that due to H5N1 in other areas of Europe, high demand for Irish beef and lamb is actually forcing prices higher.

The economic impacts of a full scale bird flu pandemic should not be underestimated. The Australian government is releasing a study today which estimates the cost to global economy from a pandemic could be as high as $4.4 Trillion dollars. This is significantly higher than previous estimates by the World Bank, but even the Australian numbers may be conservative.

The study estimated that in a worst case scenario, there would be 142 million deaths worldwide. Some scientists believe that the actual death count could be significantly higher; with up to 1 Billion people dying. Undeveloped third world nations would be significantly harder hit than other areas of the world.

The Australian estimates were put together by Professor Warwick McKibbin, one of the world's leading economic modelers and a member of the Australian Reserve Bank board, and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, a health expert at the Australian National University. According to their study, the overall world economy could shrink by as much as 12.6% and would lead to a global depression.

The study, in combination with the rapid spread of the disease, is disturbing. It has been 38 years since the last pandemic flu outbreak. Since the 19th century, pandemics have occurred at maximum intervals of 40 years. This means that we are due. All of the flu pandemics that have occurred in that time frame have originated from China and Southeast Asia. This is exactly the point of origination for H5N1. And while a number of pharmaceutical companies are working on, and testing bird flu vaccines, there is a growing body of evidence that these may be ineffectual.

The bottom line is that there may not be enough time left to head off a bird flu pandemic. This means that individuals and companies need to start making their own preparations to deal with the bird flu. Yesterday, Health and Human Services Secretary, Mike Leavitt told reporters that he has been hammering home a message to the states that they can expect little or no assistance from the federal government in the event of a pandemic. This means that we are probably all on our own.

Jim Malmberg is the founder of fluFactor, a blog that is tracking the progression of human avian flu infections. fluFactor can be found at http://flufactor.blogspot.com

Bird Flu Spreading Rapidly In Europe ? EU Nations Take Precautions

H5N1 bird flu struck another country today as Hungary became the latest European nation to discover the deadly disease in migrating swans. Over the past seven days, H5N1 has been in seven new countries; five of them being in Europe. The results of this rapid spread are causing European nations to take a variety of actions to protect both their poultry industry and their citizens.

Yesterday, Albania banned the importation of poultry products from any country that is known to have had occurrences of H5N1. At the same time, Germany has ordered that domestic poultry be confined to indoor pens as of February 17. Today, France also ordered that all domestic poultry be kept in indoor pens, where it can not be exposed to migratory wild birds.

As of last week, Bulgaria banned the hunting of wild birds by sportsmen. Bulgaria discovered H5N1 is several dead swans found in the wetlands of the Danube River.

The spread of H5N1 is having immediate economic consequences. In Italy, where the disease was discovered over the weekend, sales of chicken dropped by 50% in the three days following the government announcement that the disease was present in the country. Layoffs have already started to occur.

On the other hand, Ireland is reporting that due to H5N1 in other areas of Europe, high demand for Irish beef and lamb is actually forcing prices higher.

The economic impacts of a full scale bird flu pandemic should not be underestimated. The Australian government is releasing a study today which estimates the cost to global economy from a pandemic could be as high as $4.4 Trillion dollars. This is significantly higher than previous estimates by the World Bank, but even the Australian numbers may be conservative.

The study estimated that in a worst case scenario, there would be 142 million deaths worldwide. Some scientists believe that the actual death count could be significantly higher; with up to 1 Billion people dying. Undeveloped third world nations would be significantly harder hit than other areas of the world.

The Australian estimates were put together by Professor Warwick McKibbin, one of the world's leading economic modelers and a member of the Australian Reserve Bank board, and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, a health expert at the Australian National University. According to their study, the overall world economy could shrink by as much as 12.6% and would lead to a global depression.

The study, in combination with the rapid spread of the disease, is disturbing. It has been 38 years since the last pandemic flu outbreak. Since the 19th century, pandemics have occurred at maximum intervals of 40 years. This means that we are due. All of the flu pandemics that have occurred in that time frame have originated from China and Southeast Asia. This is exactly the point of origination for H5N1. And while a number of pharmaceutical companies are working on, and testing bird flu vaccines, there is a growing body of evidence that these may be ineffectual.

The bottom line is that there may not be enough time left to head off a bird flu pandemic. This means that individuals and companies need to start making their own preparations to deal with the bird flu. Yesterday, Health and Human Services Secretary, Mike Leavitt told reporters that he has been hammering home a message to the states that they can expect little or no assistance from the federal government in the event of a pandemic. This means that we are probably all on our own.

Jim Malmberg is the founder of fluFactor, a blog that is tracking the progression of human avian flu infections. fluFactor can be found at http://flufactor.blogspot.com

Bird Flu-worst-case Scenario

There has been a lot of buzz about bird flu or the avian influenza and how it could become a global pandemic. What would a pandemic really mean? The federal government just launched a 7 billion dollar program to help the prevention and out break of a bird flu pandemic. There have only been 83 deaths from avian flu worldwide since 2003. Health experts have not yet seen evidence of human to human transmission. So what does it mean? And why is everyone so worried about a pandemic?

This new strain of flu virus would be more resistant than other normal flu strains and if it turns into a form that passes easily from person to person, we would have little immunity to it. Millions could become ill and millions would die. Once it starts to spread it could move rapidly around the world infecting millions and affecting the lives of everyone. The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic. What is the worst-case scenario and how might it develop?

Here is how a bird flu pandemic might unfold:

Outbreaks of avian flu in birds continue in several additional countries outside of Southeast Asia including Russia, Africa and the Middle East

Human cases of bird flu increase

Health experts confirm first human-to-human transmissions

Flu screening is stepped up at airports around the world for passengers coming from infected countries

Health care workers show signs of increased exposure

Air travel spreads virus to all corners of the globe within 3 months

First confirmed human transmission cases appear in Europe Russia, and the United States

Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespread reaching epidemic status

Regional stockpiles of antivirals quickly dwindle, new high volume production and distribution is 6 months off

International flights are reduced or eliminated to help contain spread of the flu

Billions are lost on international commerce, affecting millions of jobs around the world

US imports from Asian factories halted as Asian workers fall ill, US inventories drop
International trade devastated

US economy feels effects of loss of productivity due to millions of workers out sick

Financial markets hit by panic selling, gold prices soar

Run on banks as investors convert to cash

Hospitals see surge in flu patients overwhelming staff and supplies, only those most likely to live given access to limited available ventilators

Healthcare workers and first responders out sick or stay home to care for ill family members

Public events are canceled and schools are closed

Government offices closed, non essential services shut down

Social services reduced or eliminated. Services still functioning are overwhelmed

Public transportation halted

Air traffic halted due to air traffic controllers, airport staff and flight crews out sick

Interstate commerce greatly reduced with truck drivers, warehouse and rail workers out sick

Food deliveries, gas deliveries, other essential supplies all reduced or eliminated

Grocery stores close due to shipments being eliminated

Food distribution chain from farm to stores breaks down

Travel restricted, quarantines mandatory, enforced by National Guard

Widespread looting and riots over food shortages and access to healthcare

Local, State police and National Guard overwhelmed

Social structure breaks down

Domestic violence increases as people are forced to stay home

Loss of workers affects all businesses across the economy, including finance, sanitation, utilities, internet, distribution, energy, retail, tourism and travel

Utility outages increase as coal shipments are reduced and minimum required staffs at power plants and water plants are out sick

Funeral homes are overwhelmed as bodies stack up

2nd wave of pandemic bird flu hits

Global economy will take years to recover from catastrophic losses and loss of trained employees who died

Does the above scare you? Think it won't happen? Well this is the exact scenario your local, state and federal governments are training and planning for. How would you survive? It has always been recommended to keep 3 days of supplies on hand to survive a natural disaster. We have seen how the federal government handles natural disasters. The above scenario isn?t for 3 days or 3 weeks. It might last up to 3 years.

How would you survive being housebound for several months? What if you couldn't go to work or to the grocery store? What if you had love ones that were sick? You need to stay informed about a possible bird flu pandemic and learn how to provide for yourself and your family. It may not happen in the near future but health experts agree it will happen. It is just a matter of time.

Visit the Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com for comprenehsive information on bird flu and avian influenza pandemic information. Visit the Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com for breaking pandemic news.

What Is It All About With The Bird Flu?

The humanity is always being challenged yearly. What good is a year if there has been no major threat to our humanity? It may be quite evil to say, but that?s reality. Every year, there are lots and lots of people who die from diseases, natural calamities or terrorist acts.

It is a quite a scare to consider that one day, it might be us who will be the next victims.

The current scare that is making officials all over the world S%$T their pants out is the H5N1 strain. The H5N1 is a strain of bird flu virus that has been found to be very deadly. It has been considered to be deadly because of the rate it has been transferring from one bird to the other.

The scaring thing about it is that once the birds show symptoms of the disease. They have only a few days to live. The virus also spreads rapidly, sometimes spreading the virus to other flocks in just a matter of days.

Another scary thing about it is that a flu virus tends to mutate. If it does mutate and joins with a human flu virus it can be considered deadly for our species. So far the people who have been affected did not contact the disease from other people. They got the disease because they were unhygienic in handling domesticated birds that are infected.

However, recent developments have now got more people scared. The evens in Turkey should be observed more carefully. This is because in the span of only a week, 15 people were infected. Some may think that the virus has now mutated.

If it has now mutated, we have bigger problems than Saddam Hussein. Currently we only have tamiflu to fight it with. Tamiflu is just an antiviral drug that prevents new virus from emerging out of the infected ones. Some experts even claim that Tamiflu does not help. If it does help, there is just nit enough to give to the whole world either.

The problem with the companies being hesitant to produce the tamiflu or any other vaccine for bird flu for that matter; is because they are afraid the threat becomes bust and they might waste a whole lot of money.

The H5N1 strain is really becoming the stuff only movie producers think about. It?s like the movie Outbreak. However, in real life the threat is bigger and we face a scarier situation when we just laugh about it. Thinking like it?s just Colonel Sander?s Big Joke.

The best thing we have to do is just remember to live a healthier and hygienic lifestyle. Because as always prevention has always been the best answer of humanity to any threat that looms.

Michael Colucci is a technical writer for http://www.bird-flu-facts.org - A free site that offers facts on the history, prevention, vaccines and more on the Bird Flu Virus.

Bird Flu Pandemic Planning for Faith Based and Non-Profit Organizations

How would a bird flu pandemic affect your faith-based or non-profit organization? Currently avian influenza has been mainly in Asia but it is spreading rapidly to other countries. Worldwide about 165 people have become ill (mainly from close contact with infected poultry) and about 88 have died. At this time bird flu is not passed from human to human but scientists fear it will mutate into a form or mix with normal influenza viruses that will allow it to pass easily from person to person. When that happens the chance of a world pandemic will greatly increase with catastrophic results. It may not happen in the near future but health experts say it will happen and it is only a matter of time.

A bird flu pandemic lasting a year could cost the global economy $800 billion dollars, leave millions around the world ill and kill anywhere from 5 million to 500 million people world wide. It would have a huge impact on your organization, your members and the community you serve.

It is estimated that 30-60% of the work force would be out sick. People could be housebound under quarantines for months at a time. Public gatherings such as worship services would be reduced or eliminated all together to help prevent the spread of bird flu. How would you continue to serve your members? As with any organization, you need to be aware of the risks and have a 'worst-case scenario" contingency plan in place before you actually need it.

Some of the questions you may need to start asking are:

How would you continue to offer services without contributing to the spread of bird flu? Worship services may need to be reduced or eliminated for several months. Weekly group meetings including bible studies, boy scouts, etc. would also need to be eliminated.

How would you handle a loss of contributions when members are at home sick and not working? How long could your organization last without income?

How would you continue to communicate with your members? What type of communication network between members and staff could you set up?

How would you handle your community outreach programs, such as meals on wheels and other programs where you are dealing with many people? Members of the community, who are elderly, vision impaired, wheelchair bound and those already homebound, would need someone to continue checking on them and help them if they become ill. Members of society who are slipping through the cracks now may be the hardest hit. The need for services could become overwhelming.

Members will be undergoing tremendous stress in relation to illness, loss of work and income, family members illness, being housebound ("cabin fever"), and death. The services you can offer may be stretched to the limit.

There could be food and water shortages, utility outages and social unrest. Members who were not prepared before hand would need help with their daily needs.

There would be an increase in people dying. How would you handle the additional services? How would you administer to those dying at home?

What about key employees? Who can fill in if they are out sick? Can you call upon additional volunteers? How would a bird flu pandemic impact your overseas mission work?

What other community services are you offering that may be affected? Daycare centers along with schools would probably be closed. You may need to open your doors to shelter the sick or take care of the homeless. You may need to help your community with social services that are no longer available.

During a pandemic, everyone's faith, resilience and core beliefs will be put to the test. Your best defense is to stay informed and updated, keep your members informed about the bird flu and by starting to plan now for a possible bird flu pandemic, you will be in a better position to continue to offer your members the services they require and the answers they need.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

The truth about bird flu

There has been much written about the threat of a bird flu pandemic. Much of it is either alarmist or inaccurate. However the truth is not a great deal more digestible.

First I will examine the facts as they stand. The virus in this case has been labelled H5N1 and it is a fairly close relation to the virus H1N1 which caused the "Spanish" flu pandemic in 1918/19. That outbreak followed the Great War (aka World War I) and killed many more than that war itself. Most estimates of the death toll of H1N1 range from 50 million to 100 million!

H5N1 is currently decimating bird stocks around the world and is spreading alarmingly with recent outbreaks in Turkey, Cyprus and now Africa and Italy. In its current form H5N1 is not a great threat to mankind and those who have become infected with the virus have been in close contact with infected birds. But we must not underestimate or ignore the human misery caused by those who have died through infection and the loss to livelihood caused by the destruction of avian farming stocks.

So what is all the fuss about? Simply that viruses tend to evolve and, over time, it is likely that H5N1 will "learn" to infect humans far more easily. Viruses can learn in a variety of ways. One way is through normal evolution and they evolve far quicker than we do - indeed some strains of H5N1 are already showing resistance to Tamiflu - the current antiviral of choice. A quicker route is if the virus should find itself inhabiting the same body as a human flu virus - perhaps in a human being or perhaps in a pig - among other possibilities. When this happens the viruses often swap information.

The consensus of opinion among the great and the good of the scientific community is that it is only a matter of time before H5N1 becomes capable of human-to-human transmission - that it is inevitable!

Once that happens the pandemic begins.

But even then a great deal of uncertainty exists. There are two key statistics when it comes to a virus rather as there are two key statistics when it comes to marketing a web site. In the case of the web site the first key statistic is how many people reading your banner ad/your email promo click through to your web site. The second is how may of those actually buy.

In the case of the virus it is far more morbid. The two key statistics are the infection rate and the mortality rate.

There have been three recognised pandemics in the last 100 years. All three had infection rates of around 25%. The 1918/19 pandemic also had a mortality rate of between 2.5% - 5% which is why it was so deadly. The pandemics of 1957/58 and 1968/69 had mortality rates of around 0.37%.

These statistics are really the source of all the hype and concern because currently H5N1 is killing around 50% of those it infects!

Hence we get claims that 1.5 billion (sic) people will die. The mathematics is simple. We assume an infection rate of 50%, and some say "Spanish" flu infected 50% of people, and we apply the current mortality rate of 50% to the current world population in excess of 6 billion people. Result: one in four dies.

But this over looks a key point. Usually a virus that mutates to become capable of human-to-human transmission becomes much less deadly in the process.

The bottom line - we simply do not know what we might face.

The key question - how much time and money do we spend on a threat which may be a complete damp squib or may decimate human population?

John Piper is a freelance researcher and writer with four books under his belt. He specialises in stock markets and health. Feel free to contact the author at john@ttttt.freeserve.co.uk with any comments on this article or visit http://www.virusalert1.com for John's Book on bird flu.

Preparing Your Business for a Bird Flu Pandemic

How would your business operate if half your work force were out sick? Would your business continue to function if several of your top key employees died? How many employees are cross-trained in other positions?

A recent study showed the threat that most preoccupies the world's business leaders is a global influenza pandemic. This is why you need to start asking these questions now so your business can be prepared for a possible bird flu pandemic. A bird flu pandemic will not discriminate. Everyone from the janitor to the CEO would be affected. Worst-case scenario could leave millions sick and any where from 5 million to 1.5 billion people dead around the world.

The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year, could cost the global economy up to $800 billion. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic. There would be major economic losses due to worker absences and interruptions in supply and delivery chains. Even a "mild" pandemic would have lasting effects on your business. Because a global flu pandemic is such a threat, current business and disaster response plans may not be adequate to deal with it. What steps should you start to take now to prepare?

As with any worst-case scenario you should be aware of the risks and have a contingency plan in place before you need it. By planning now you will help keep your business running, your employees safe and head off possible legal issues. Some of the steps you may want to consider are:

Establish a pandemic coordinator or team with responsibilities for preparedness and response planning. Provide current avian influenza information to all employees. Identify and make available information on community resources.

Identify key essential areas and current employees responsible. Cross-train other employees in those areas so they are able to fill in for sick employees. Have written documentation for those employees filling in for others.

Identify key suppliers and alternative sources for critical materials and supplies. Increase raw material inventories to keep production going for several months. Plan for "just in time" inventory shortages. Products and inventory from Asian countries may not be available if Asian factories are shut down due to illness.

Play "what if?" What if Joe in accounting was out sick for a month? Or Sam in IT died? Who could fill in, how would the business run? It is estimated that between 30-60% of the workforce will be out sick.

Maintain a healthy work environment. Encourage hand washing, offer hand sanitizers, consider quality air purifiers. Limit face-to-face contact with employees and customers. Limit large group meetings, shared workstations and public events. Limit or eliminate non-essential business travel. Make use of conference calls and video conferencing.

Review employment policies to see if you can require employees to stay home if they are sick. Establish new sick time policies. Check employee agreement clauses for business closure plans, hours of work and position changes. Establish policies and procedures for sending staff home, staff leaving work on their own, unauthorized absences and returning to work. Plan to offer additional sick time pay or wage and salary advances to staff unable to work. Plan for family member illness, community quarantines, school/business and public transportation closures.

Offer telecommuting options to as many employees as possible. Offer flextime and other creative job options.

Back up essential files off site, provide access to a network of key employees.

Establish a communication plan for employees and business contacts. Include key contacts and tracking for employee status. Employees will be hungry for up to date information about their business, jobs and co-workers. Good communication with your employees is essential to avoid rumors, panic and misinformation.

To encourage employees to stock up on food and supplies for an extended home stay, purchase supplies for them in bulk to take advantage of discounts, offer the savings to employees. Or offer them a SAM's Club or Costco membership at no charge.

Taking these steps today will help your business be prepared for a possible bird flu pandemic, survive for the duration and return to business as normal faster than those who are not prepared.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Why a Bird Flu Pandemic Will Be Such a World Catastrophe

We are moving closer every day to a world influenza pandemic. New cases of bird flu are being discovered in more countries. 88 people worldwide since 2003, who have had close contact with infected birds have died. Scientists fear that when the bird flu virus mutates or mixes with normal influenza viruses then it will be in a form that passes easily from person to person. The 1918 influenza that killed 40-50 million people world wide, started in Kansas and moved around the world within 9 months. And that was without the type of air travel we have today.

Governments around the world are scrambling to prevent this from happening. Billions of dollars in new aid is going for surveillance and reporting of new cases as they happen, prevent them from spreading and stockpiling antivirals in the event it does happen. The medical community is working on new vaccines that may be used on a wide scale in the event of an outbreak. But will all this be enough? High volume production and distribution of a pandemic vaccine could take 6 months or more after the start of a pandemic event. Government reporting of new cases could be delayed long enough for preventive aid from doing any good. New cases in rural areas could go undetected for weeks or months.

Once human transmission is confirmed, containment will be the next big hurdle. As millions become ill, the global economy will start to feel the effects. Transportation, travel, tourism, trade, retail, education will all suffer. Panic could wreck havoc with the world financial markets in short order. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Every hospital in the country will have a shortage of beds, ventilators and staff. In the event of a natural disaster, it is one thing for aid to come from other areas but in the event of a pandemic no one will have the aid or manpower to spare.

The World Bank has estimated that a influenza pandemic lasting a year would cost the global economy $800 billion dollars. How would we recover from that? The economic consequences of a influenza pandemic would be catastrophic. Businesses large and small will be affected by loss of workers, supplies and distribution of goods and services. Some businesses will never recover. Those who do may be missing key employees who died. Economic recovery will be painfully slow.

A flu pandemic would affect some of the world's poorest people the hardest. They are the ones who don't have access to proper health care now. They are the ones who are falling through the social services cracks now. Elderly persons who are already homebound, may be forgotten about. In countries in Africa that are already devastated by HIV, poor health care, famine and war, whole nations could be wiped out.

Social unrest and political upheaval are sure to follow. Governments will be blamed for doing too little too late. Conspiracies about how pharmaceutical companies withheld new vaccines or antivirals will be rampant. Price gouging, profit motives and horror stories about how people suffered will fill the news for months to come. A different political landscape will form to make sure this kind of suffering never happens again.

A global flu pandemic will affect the lives of everyone with catastrophic results. You need to continue to stay informed on the latest bird flu news and how you can prepare for a pandemic. Health experts agree it is just a matter of time that there will be a pandemic.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Bird Flu Pandemic Phases

Bird flu is a disease caused by a specific type of avian (bird) influenza virus, the so-called H5N1 virus. This virus was first discovered in birds in China in 1997 and since then has infected 165 people, mainly in Asia but now also Turkey, bringing it closer to the west. It has killed 83 people worldwide since 2003. It spreads by infected migratory birds to domestic poultry. Millions of birds have been killed to try and stop the spread of the virus. Humans who have been infected have had close contact with infected birds.

So far, there have been no cases of human-to-human transmission. Scientists fear it is only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain mutates into a pandemic form that passes easily between people, similar to the 1918 influenza outbreak that killed millions. Nations around the world are scrambling to prepare for a bird flu pandemic. Worst-case scenario could leave millions sick and any where from 5 million to 1.5 billion people dead around the world. There is little immunity to this new strain of influenza. Our health care system would be overwhelmed.

The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic.

Below is the World Health Organization's Pandemic Phases. We are currently at Phase 0, Level 2. Transmission from person to person has not been confirmed. When we enter the next phase-Person-to-Person spread you will be seeing a lot more information in the news about the bird flu pandemic. Once it reaches that phase it can start to spread around the world within weeks. Some people who become infected may not become ill, yet, they spread it to others without knowing it. Others may become ill and die within days. As the flu spreads we will see the government stepping up their efforts to contain it including limiting air travel, quarantines, school and business closures, and public events canceled.

For the time being your best defense against bird flu is to stay informed and prepare for an eventual bird flu pandemic.

WHO International Influenza Pandemic Phases

Phase 0: The Inter-Pandemic Phase

The time between two influenza pandemics. The longest period known was 39 years (1918-1958)

Phase 0, Level 1: Novel Virus Alert

A novel influenza strain has been identified in a human.

Phase 0, Level 2: Human Infection Confirmed

Confirmation that the novel strain has infected two or more persons but the ability for the strain to pass rapidly from person-to-person is not confirmed or is questionable.

Phase 0, Level 3: Pandemic Alert - Person-to-Person Spread Confirmed

The person-to-person spread of the virus is confirmed within a community with at least one of the outbreaks lasting for more than 2 weeks.

Phase 1: Confirmation of the Onset of a Pandemic

The novel virus is confirmed to be causing several outbreaks in one country and has spread to other countries. The mortality and morbidity of the infection is serious in at least one segment of the population.

Phase 2: Regional and Multi-Regional Epidemics

Outbreaks and epidemics are occurring in multiple countries

Phase 3: End of the First Wave Pandemic

The first pandemic wave is likely to taper off with a change in season. The hiatus between the first and second pandemic wave is variable and could last from 3 to 9 months.

Phase 4: Confirmation of Beginning of a Second Pandemic Wave
The lethality of the second and subsequent waves depends on there being enough time to manufacture and administer an effective vaccine before the wave begins.

Phase 5: Confirmation of the End of the Pandemic

Once the number of susceptible persons falls below a threshold, the pandemic will cease.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

Bird Flu--Worst-Case Scenario

There has been a lot of buzz about bird flu or the avian influenza and how it could become a global pandemic. What would a pandemic really mean? The federal government just launched a 7 billion dollar program to help the prevention and out break of a bird flu pandemic. There have only been 88 deaths from avian flu worldwide since 2003. Health experts have not yet seen evidence of human to human transmission. So what does it mean? And why is everyone so worried about a pandemic?

This new strain of flu virus would be more resistant than other normal flu strains and if it turns into a form that passes easily from person to person, we would have little immunity to it. Millions could become ill and millions would die. Once it starts to spread it could move rapidly around the world infecting millions and affecting the lives of everyone. The World Bank, which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a year could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion. The economic toll on the world economy will be catastrophic. What is the worst-case scenario and how might it develop?

Here is how a bird flu pandemic might unfold:

Outbreaks of avian flu in birds continue in several additional countries outside of Southeast Asia including Russia, Africa and the Middle East

Human cases of bird flu increase

Health experts confirm first human-to-human transmissions

Flu screening is stepped up at airports around the world for passengers coming from infected countries

Health care workers show signs of increased exposure

Air travel spreads virus to all corners of the globe within 3 months

First confirmed human transmission cases appear in Europe Russia, and the United States

Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespread reaching epidemic status

Regional stockpiles of antivirals quickly dwindle, new high volume production and distribution is 6 months off

International flights are reduced or eliminated to help contain spread of the flu

Billions are lost on international commerce, affecting millions of jobs around the world

US imports from Asian factories halted as Asian workers fall ill, US inventories drop

International trade devastated

US economy feels effects of loss of productivity due to millions of workers out sick

Financial markets hit by panic selling, gold prices soar Run on banks as investors convert to cash

Hospitals see surge in flu patients overwhelming staff and supplies, only those most likely to live given access to limited available ventilators

Healthcare workers and first responders out sick or stay home to care for ill family members

Public events are canceled and schools are closed

Government offices closed, non essential services shut down

Social services reduced or eliminated. Services still functioning are overwhelmed

Public transportation halted

Air traffic halted due to air traffic controllers, airport staff and flight crews out sick

Interstate commerce greatly reduced with truck drivers, warehouse and rail workers out sick

Food deliveries, gas deliveries, other essential supplies all reduced or eliminated

Grocery stores close due to shipments being eliminated

Food distribution chain from farm to stores breaks down

Travel restricted, quarantines mandatory, enforced by National Guard

Widespread looting and riots over food shortages and access to healthcare

Local, State police and National Guard overwhelmed

Social structure breaks down

Domestic violence increases as people are forced to stay home

Loss of workers affects all businesses across the economy, including finance, sanitation, utilities, internet, distribution, energy, retail, tourism and travel

Utility outages increase as coal shipments are reduced and minimum required staffs at power plants and water plants are out sick

Funeral homes are overwhelmed as bodies stack up

2nd wave of pandemic bird flu hits

Global economy will take years to recover from catastrophic losses and loss of trained employees who died

Does the above scare you? Think it won't happen? Well this is the exact scenario your local, state and federal governments are training and planning for. How would you survive? It has always been recommended to keep 3 days of supplies on hand to survive a natural disaster. We have seen how the federal government handles natural disasters. The above scenario isn't for 3 days or 3 weeks. It might last up to 3 years.

How would you survive being housebound for several months? What if you couldn't go to work or to the grocery store? What if you had love ones that were sick? You need to stay informed about a possible bird flu pandemic and learn how to provide for yourself and your family. It may not happen in the near future but health experts agree it will happen. It is just a matter of time.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

How the Bird Flu Could Turn into a Pandemic

Should we be worried that the bird flu could turn into a pandemic? Worldwide only 165 people have been infected and about 88 have died. The people who became infected had close contact with infected birds. Currently it is not spread by human-to-human transmission. But scientists fear that it will turn into a form that can be easily spread person to person or mix with normal flu viruses to provide that human transmission. When that happens, the chances of a world bird flu pandemic will have greatly increased.

We have seen bird flu virus spread among poultry throughout Southeast Asia and is now moving towards the west with new cases being discovered in Turkey, Iran, Africa, Greece and now Italy. While everything is being done to stop the spread, it continues to spread to other parts of the globe. New outbreaks will continue to pop up. Migratory birds are carrying it into Europe, Africa, Russia, and throughout the Middle East. When new cases are confirmed in those countries we will know it is continuing to spread. The first cases of bird flu have now reached northern Africa. In African countries already devastated by HIV, poverty, famine, war and lack of health care it will infect the population at a much greater rate than other parts of the world. This will probably provide the greatest chance of the virus mutating into a form that can pass from person to person through human contact, coughs, etc. As more people become infected, the greater chance it will start to spread around the world. This is why the greatest chance of a bird flu pandemic will come not from Asia, where new outbreaks are being monitored very carefully, but from Africa.

In 1918 the Influenza started in Kansas and spread around the world within 9 months infecting millions and killing an estimated 40-50 million people. Today with increased population, more people living closer together in large cities and air travel, it could spread very quickly. One person traveling by air could infect dozens of other passengers, and those passengers would spread it to other travelers and other cities. A person coughing at a basketball game or concert. Another person coughing as they walk through the skyways to their office, leaving the virus on door handles as they go. Adults spreading it to children, who bring it to school, who bring it home. One "superspreader" could infect dozens of people.

Within weeks or months the flu has spread around the world. Emergency plans put in place may not be quick enough. Anti viral medication will take 6 months to get into production and delivered to those who need it. Planned regional stockpiles of antiviral medicine will quickly dwindle. Once the dominos start falling we will be under the full effects of a pandemic crisis.

Once human-to-human transmission has been confirmed any where in the world, we will have from one month to a year to prepare for a possible avian influenza pandemic. Those who are not prepared will be the hardest hit. Your best defense is to stay informed about bird flu and start preparing for a potential avian influenza pandemic now.

To stay up to date on avian influenza, bird flu and the h5n1 virus visit The Bird Flu Index http://www.birdfluindex.com Find links to bird flu websites, official medical and government sites and full information about how the bird flu could turn into a global influenza pandemic. Search through the article archive for the latest bird flu articles. For the latest bird flu news visit The Pandemic Zone http://pandemiczone.blogspot.com

The Basics Of Bird Flu

Bird flu or avian flu is an influenza virus type that normally infects birds. However, it can also infect other animals including pigs. Wild birds are natural hosts to the virus and normally don't get sick from it. But domestic animals such as chickens and turkeys could be severely affected. Humans, on the other hand, can be infected with influenza types A, B, and C.

Genetic changes and sharing can occur under certain circumstances. This could happen in crowded conditions where poultry, pigs, and people live in close quarters. This change could allow a virus to turn into more infectious to humans. This could also mean that the virus can more easily transmitted from person to person. This is precisely when a pandemic could break out.

The avian flu's jump to humans was first detected in 1997. Though there have been around 60 human deaths reported, they have been due to transmission from animals to humans. Migratory birds have been detected with the virus and these cannot be caught and killed - these birds have alreadd carried the virus to Europe and Africa. It is difficult to predict when the pandemic could break out - It all depends on when that genetic shift (from birds to humans) takes place.

For now, there has been no detection of this virus in the U.S. It is however possible for travelers to be infected, but most of cases in humans have been in those with closer contact to birds than a casual traveler has. Since the infection occurs via fecal-oral route, people are advised to reduce their risk while traveling by avoiding bird markets, zoos, and areas in parks, where there could be high concentrations of bird feces.

Countries that are the most vulnerable to this flu are Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia, due to their high concentration of bird markets. Other areas include Thailand, China (south and north), Tibet, Kazakhstan, Russia and Mongolia.

Symptoms of bird flu in humans have ranged from typical flu-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches) to eye infections and pneumonia. If you feel you've been exposed, there are a couple of treatment recommendations available today that you may want to discuss with your doctor. Until these are tested in a pandemic, however, their true efficacy is unknown. There are currently no vaccines available, but many companies are working on them.

More information on Avian Flu and preventive measures can be had from Bird Flu Prevention

Why We Should Be Worried About The Bird Flu

Is the Bird Flu Virus for real? Or is it something the media has blown up once again. Does the bird flu virus really possess a threat to us humans?

The bird flu virus is the current virus that has been scaring people away from eating at KFC. People might think that the bird flu virus might cause them to die.

What the media is doing, is only trying to scare a lot of people from the bird flu virus. This is maybe because of the pandemic that we have experienced before from other flu that have killed millions.

The most famous of all the flu is the pandemic that happened during 1918-19. The Spanish flu killed more people than World War 1. 500 million became ill of this virus and around 40 million died.

That's why for every new flu virus that's been arising, people get worried right away. Scientist will try to prevent viruses from getting a lot worse like the 1918-19 pandemic. The media on the other hand serves to inform the people of the potential threat.

Another thing to worry about is that 36,000 people die everyday of ordinary influenza virus in the United States alone. Can you imagine how much worse a pandemic can cause?

Also every 3 to 4 times in a century there will always be a chance that a flu pandemic may hit. What if the bird flu virus is already among them? That's why people form the media and scientist grow deeply worried.

The flu can basically achieve these things because it has the ability to mutate. It can change quickly and outwit the vaccines that have been created for previous flu strains. Then they take the immune system by storm.

The flu can also grab the genetic material of other viruses and also jump from one species to another. There are times where the transfer needs to be done via an intermediary. Such as the West Nile Fever, this needs a mosquito to be transferred.

The viruses that have transferred from animals to people are not something new. This has been happening since the 1980's. The new virus that ahs been scaring people of that comes from animals is the bird flu.

Bird flu's symptoms usually start out quite simple and the infected person might think that it's just an ordinary flu. The infected person will experience muscle aches, sore throats, colds and cough. However, it may lead to the immediate death of the infected person.

Currently, people who have died form bird flu are still not abundant to call it a pandemic or worry about an outbreak. What worries the health officials is the possibility it becomes an outbreak when it mutates and can transfer from one person to the other. That's why its better the media and the health officials worry about this thing a whole lot before we get another pandemic like that of the Spanish Flu.

Michael Colucci is a technical writer for Bird Flu Facts - A site that offers the latest facts on the bird flu.

Avian Influenza - Bird Flu FAQ

As more and more cases of bird flu are reported, the world faces an immediate threat of a deadly pandemic. Pandemics (Global Disease Outbreaks) are known to be like flash floods. They start abruptly, spread fast and cause a lot of damage all over the world.

A few facts that everyone should know:

What is Avian Influenza?

As the name suggests, avian influenza refers to the infection caused by avian (bird) influenza (flu) viruses. These viruses are commonly found in intestines of wild birds and these birds can carry the viruses without getting sick. However the viruses can be pathogenic to domesticated birds like chickens, ducks and turkeys. Domesticated birds become infected through exposure to other birds or through surfaces contaminated by secretions and faeces of the infected birds.

These viruses are classified as Low Pathogenicity and High Pathogenicity. Most strains of Avian Influenza come under Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (LPAI) Group and produce mild symptoms in the infected birds. Common symptoms are ruffled feathers, decreased food appetite, decreased egg production, sneezing and coughing. Many times LPAI may go undetected.

High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) has more severe symptoms which include sudden death, loss of energy and appetite, decreased egg production, respiratory problems, facial oedema (swelling), poorly formed eggs and diarrhoea. HPAI can reach a mortality rate of nearly 100%.

What Is H5N1 strain of Bird Flu?

All flu viruses are classified as type A, B or C depending on their structural arrangement. Type A is responsible for lethal pandemics and is found in both animals and humans. Type B causes local outbreaks of flu. Type C is the most stable of the three and infected people show only mild symptoms of flu. Type B and C are usually found only in humans. Type B and C are more stable than type A and are not classified according to their subtypes.

Influenza viruses of type A are divided into subtypes and the naming is done on the basis of two proteins (antigens) found on their surface - Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA). Sixteen types of HA and nine types of NA exist. Thus a total 144 combinations are possible.

Thus H5N1 is a type A virus and gets its name from HA 5 protein and NA 1 protein present on its surface.

How Do Type A Viruses Cause A Pandemic?

Type A viruses are further classified into strains. These strains can continuously evolve into different strains. Their ability to exchange genetic material with other viruses and create new influenza viruses makes them unpredictable and difficult to fight with. Humans have to develop new immunity (antibodies) every time new strains are created.

Viruses cannot repair genetic damage, small changes known as "Antigen Drift", are continuously creating new strains of viruses. However when genetic material from Type A viruses from different species - say a bird and a human, comes together and merges, an entirely new strain is created. This is known as "Antigen Shift" Humans have no immunity to such a strain and the strain can spread rapidly causing a Pandemic.

How Is The Virus Transmitted To Humans From Birds?

Usually Avian Influenza viruses do not infect humans. Migratory birds act as carriers of these viruses and do not get affected by them. These birds then come in contact with domesticated birds such as chickens and turkeys and spread the infection to them. Domesticated birds may get the virus from contact with contaminated surfaces too. Once a virus infects domesticated birds, it can cause severe epidemic among the birds. Humans come in contact with infected birds or contaminated surfaces and pick up the virus.

In the human body, this avian flu virus then undergoes an antigenic shift, combines with genetic material of a human strain of influenza virus and creates an entirely new strain of virus against which humans have little or no immunity. These genetic reassortments may also take place is the body of a third species (susceptible to both avian and human viruses) like the pig, where an avian influenza A virus and human influenza virus mix their genetic information and produce a new virus which might be able to infect humans.

Why is H5N1 dangerous?

The first reported cases of H5N1 infections were detected in geese in 1997 in Southern China. A total of 18 human infections were reported and six of them succumbed to it. The infection spread quickly to poultry in Hong Kong. At that time a million and half chickens were culled in Hong Kong to keep the virus under control. The virus disappeared for a few years, but resurfaced in 2002 in Hong Kong again. Since then it has killed millions of birds in Asia and many cases of human infections have been reported.

The persistence of this H5N1 strain of virus is a great concern for humans. Although the virus does not spread from birds to humans easily, the severity of the infection of H5N1 in humans is frightening. The virus has killed every second person infected by it. These cases were reported in perfectly healthy individuals who had no past history of infections. However the greater concern for the world is the POSSIBILITY THAT THE VIRUS MAY MUTATE (UNDERGO ANTIGENIC SHIFT) AND CREATE A FORM THAT MAY SPREAD FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN. Such a strain of virus may result in a pandemic, killing millions of people worldwide.

Is Consumption Of Poultry Birds Safe?

Yes, it is safe to consume THOROUGHLY COOKED poultry products. The H5N1 virus is sensitive to heat and gets destroyed by normal cooking temperatures of 70- 100 degree Celsius. If meat from poultry birds and eggs are cooked properly, the virus will be destroyed. Just make sure that no part of the meat remains raw or uncooked.

How Big Is The Risk Of A Pandemic Breaking Out?

The world had to face a Bird Flu Pandemic, thrice in the twentieth century. In 1918-1919, "Spanish Flu" killed anywhere between 20 million to 50 million people (exact figures not known), including half a million in the United States alone. The "Asian flu" in 1957-58 killed 70,000 in the United States and in 1968-1969, the "Hong Kong flu" killed 34,000 in the USA.

Currently the risk of H5N1 strain leading to a Pandemic is high. The virus is spreading fast to new areas and the efforts made to curtail it have proved inadequate.

Domestic ducks have now become a "reservoir" for the virus. They are acting like a carrier for the virus - their bodies carry the virus without showing signs of any infection. Infected ducks then release large quantities of the virus in pathogenic form in their excretions spreading the virus to other birds or humans. This has made detection of the virus difficult especially in rural areas.

According to health experts, the virus has already met the first two prerequisites for starting a pandemic. First it has attained a form, for which humans have no inbuilt immunity; and second, it has proved pathogenic enough to cause serious illness and death in humans.

The present risk of a pandemic is very high. The only factor that has prevented a pandemic so far is that the virus has not mutated into a form that would allow it to transmit efficiently from one human to another. Once such a genetic change takes place for the virus, a pandemic will be inevitable. The first signs of such a reassortment will be presence of the clusters of patients with flu symptoms, closely related - both in time and space. This would be a clear indication of virus having the ability to transmit from human-to-human.

Currently no vaccine has been developed for fighting H5N1 strain. Simultaneous work is being done in many countries for developing a vaccine, but no success has been achieved. The exact virus that may cause the pandemic cannot be predetermined. Thus mass production of vaccine before the pandemic starts is ruled out. The worldwide manufacturing capacity is inadequate to match the sudden demand surge during a pandemic. The best that scientists can do is to carry out a study and determine the smallest amount of antigen per dose that will provide sufficient protection and thus maximise the number of vaccines produced.

What Are The Precautions Necessary To Prevent A Pandemic?

The logical first step is to control the disease from spreading among birds, but this seems a difficult task now. Bird Flu has become a bird epidemic in many parts of Asia and is spreading fast.

The Next step is to prevent the disease from getting passed on to humans. People who come in close contact with birds (like poultry farmers) are advised to keep a close watch on the health of birds, notify any sort of sickness in birds to the health authorities and avoid direct contact with sick birds in all cases. (Ducks have become a reservoir for the virus and may not exhibit signs of sickness even if they are carrying the virus.)

In case the flu becomes a pandemic, most countries of the world will be affected. In such a scenario, the best preventive measures would be personal hygiene, avoiding crowded places and staying away from raw meat and eggs.

A flu shot does not prevent bird flu, but it can protect a person from other forms of flu and avoid complications. Persons above 65 years of age, children, health services workers, people with chronic respiratory disorders, travellers to flu affected countries and pregnant women may consult a doctor regarding flu vaccination.

What Are The Symptoms In Humans and Treatment Options For Bird Flu?

A person infected by bird flu may have all symptoms of common flu like fever, persistent cough, sore throat and body ache. Moreover, there is a high risk of complications such as pneumonia, bronchitis, eye and ear infections and severe breathing problems.

Presently four drugs are used to combat influenza.

The most effective drugs known for seasonal flu are Oseltamivir (commercial name Tamiflu) and Zanamavir (Commercial name Relenza). Both of these are known to reduce severity and duration of seasonal flu, but they may prove ineffective if the virus is allowed to stay in the body for too long. Health professionals advise that TREATMENT OF FLU WITH THESE DRUGS SHOULD START WITHIN 48 HOURS OF FIRST APPEARANCE FLU SYMPTOMS.

Oseltamivir and Zanamavir fall in the Neuraminidase inhibitors class. The surface protein Neuraminidase breaks bonds between new viruses and infected cells. By blocking the activity of Neuraminidase, these two drugs prevent the new viruses from being released.

Another class of drugs - the M2 inhibitors is also available, but viruses develop resistance to these drugs quickly and thus these drugs may prove ineffective in controlling pandemics. Amantadine and Rimantadine are two drugs from this class. These drugs inhibit the activity of M2 protein, which forms a channel in membranes of viruses and thereby preventing the viruses from replicating.

One should consult a doctor before taking any of these drugs as THESE DRUGS ARE KNOWN TO HAVE SIDE EFFECTS IN SOME CASES. For example, Zanamavir is not recommended to people having chronic respiratory diseases such as asthma.

(This article was written on 25th January 2006 and may not contain developments that took place after this date.)

Sachin A. is a Freelance Writer and specializes in articles that require extensive research. Check out his work at http://www.rightarticle.com